# | Player (Team/Bye) | Pos | vs. ECR | vs. ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Christian McCaffrey CAR (13) | RB | 0 | +1 |
2 | Jonathan Taylor IND (14) | RB | 0 | -1 |
3 | Austin Ekeler LAC (8) | RB | 0 | 0 |
4 | Derrick Henry TEN (6) | RB | +4 | +1 |
5 | Najee Harris PIT (9) | RB | 0 | +2 |
6 | Cooper Kupp LAR (7) | WR | +1 | -2 |
7 | Dalvin Cook MIN (7) | RB | -3 | +1 |
8 | Joe Mixon CIN (10) | RB | +3 | +2 |
9 | Travis Kelce KC (8) | TE | 0 | +4 |
10 | Justin Jefferson MIN (7) | WR | -4 | -4 |
11 | Ja'Marr Chase CIN (10) | WR | +1 | -2 |
12 | D'Andre Swift DET (6) | RB | -2 | +2 |
13 | Davante Adams LV (6) | WR | +1 | -2 |
14 | Deebo Samuel SF (9) | WR | +10 | +1 |
15 | Leonard Fournette TB (11) | RB | +3 | +10 |
16 | Saquon Barkley NYG (9) | RB | +1 | +8 |
17 | CeeDee Lamb DAL (9) | WR | -1 | 0 |
18 | Aaron Jones GB (14) | RB | -3 | +1 |
19 | Mark Andrews BAL (10) | TE | 0 | +4 |
20 | Stefon Diggs BUF (7) | WR | -7 | -8 |
21 | Alvin Kamara NO (14) | RB | -1 | -3 |
22 | Michael Pittman Jr. IND (14) | WR | +5 | +15 |
23 | Tee Higgins CIN (10) | WR | +5 | +8 |
24 | DJ Moore CAR (13) | WR | +6 | +20 |
25 | Javonte Williams DEN (9) | RB | 0 | -4 |
26 | Keenan Allen LAC (8) | WR | -4 | +1 |
27 | Ezekiel Elliott DAL (9) | RB | +5 | +2 |
28 | Diontae Johnson PIT (9) | WR | +5 | +14 |
29 | Brandin Cooks HOU (6) | WR | +13 | +24 |
30 | Kyle Pitts ATL (14) | TE | +5 | +4 |
31 | James Conner ARI (13) | RB | 0 | -1 |
32 | Nick Chubb CLE (9) | RB | -6 | -16 |
33 | Tyreek Hill MIA (11) | WR | -10 | -13 |
34 | Mike Williams LAC (8) | WR | +10 | +18 |
35 | David Montgomery CHI (14) | RB | +1 | -2 |
36 | Josh Allen BUF (7) | QB | -2 | -14 |
37 | A.J. Brown PHI (7) | WR | -8 | -9 |
38 | Travis Etienne Jr. JAC (11) | RB | +1 | +9 |
39 | Mike Evans TB (11) | WR | -18 | -13 |
40 | Patrick Mahomes II KC (8) | QB | +6 | -8 |
41 | J.K. Dobbins BAL (10) | RB | +12 | +9 |
42 | DK Metcalf SEA (11) | WR | +6 | +3 |
43 | Terry McLaurin WAS (14) | WR | -2 | -2 |
44 | Breece Hall NYJ (10) | RB | -7 | +7 |
45 | Justin Herbert LAC (8) | QB | -2 | -9 |
46 | Amon-Ra St. Brown DET (6) | WR | +20 | +21 |
47 | Darnell Mooney CHI (14) | WR | +12 | +23 |
48 | Cam Akers LAR (7) | RB | -8 | -13 |
49 | Josh Jacobs LV (6) | RB | +2 | -6 |
50 | Jalen Hurts PHI (7) | QB | +17 | +14 |
51 | George Kittle SF (9) | TE | -2 | -12 |
52 | Darren Waller LV (6) | TE | +2 | -6 |
53 | Tyler Lockett SEA (11) | WR | +41 | +36 |
54 | Jaylen Waddle MIA (11) | WR | -16 | -14 |
55 | Elijah Mitchell SF (9) | RB | 0 | -7 |
56 | AJ Dillon GB (14) | RB | +1 | +4 |
57 | Chris Godwin TB (11) | WR | +6 | -3 |
58 | Jerry Jeudy DEN (9) | WR | +2 | +3 |
59 | Marquise Brown ARI (13) | WR | -3 | +6 |
60 | Kareem Hunt CLE (9) | RB | +11 | +19 |
61 | Elijah Moore NYJ (10) | WR | +12 | +26 |
62 | Damien Harris NE (10) | RB | +13 | +4 |
63 | Hunter Renfrow LV (6) | WR | +26 | +12 |
64 | Cordarrelle Patterson ATL (14) | RB | +19 | +14 |
65 | JuJu Smith-Schuster KC (8) | WR | +3 | +21 |
66 | Allen Robinson II LAR (7) | WR | -14 | +5 |
67 | Dallas Goedert PHI (7) | TE | +19 | +10 |
68 | Lamar Jackson BAL (10) | QB | -18 | -19 |
69 | Kyler Murray ARI (13) | QB | -5 | -14 |
70 | Antonio Gibson WAS (14) | RB | -23 | -32 |
71 | Dalton Schultz DAL (9) | TE | -9 | -13 |
72 | Robert Woods TEN (6) | WR | +31 | +27 |
73 | Miles Sanders PHI (7) | RB | -4 | -5 |
74 | Devin Singletary BUF (7) | RB | +7 | +6 |
75 | Courtland Sutton DEN (9) | WR | -30 | -13 |
76 | Gabriel Davis BUF (7) | WR | +3 | 0 |
77 | Amari Cooper CLE (9) | WR | -19 | -20 |
78 | Dak Prescott DAL (9) | QB | +6 | -5 |
79 | Tom Brady TB (11) | QB | +3 | +2 |
80 | Adam Thielen MIN (7) | WR | -3 | -11 |
81 | Tony Pollard DAL (9) | RB | -3 | +3 |
82 | Chase Edmonds MIA (11) | RB | -12 | +11 |
83 | Rashaad Penny SEA (11) | RB | -3 | -1 |
84 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC (8) | RB | -12 | -25 |
85 | Matthew Stafford LAR (7) | QB | +12 | +5 |
86 | DeVonta Smith PHI (7) | WR | +2 | +2 |
87 | Joe Burrow CIN (10) | QB | -11 | -31 |
88 | Rhamondre Stevenson NE (10) | RB | +2 | +20 |
89 | T.J. Hockenson DET (6) | TE | -15 | -26 |
90 | Melvin Gordon III DEN (9) | RB | -3 | +7 |
91 | James Robinson JAC (11) | RB | +31 | +11 |
92 | Darrell Henderson Jr. LAR (7) | RB | +24 | +28 |
93 | Zach Ertz ARI (13) | TE | 0 | -2 |
94 | James Cook BUF (7) | RB | +8 | +17 |
95 | Mike Gesicki MIA (11) | TE | +30 | +15 |
96 | Michael Thomas NO (14) | WR | -31 | -22 |
97 | Chase Claypool PIT (9) | WR | +12 | +7 |
98 | Christian Kirk JAC (11) | WR | -2 | +3 |
99 | Trey Lance SF (9) | QB | -1 | +1 |
100 | Aaron Rodgers GB (14) | QB | +1 | -15 |
101 | Russell Wilson DEN (9) | QB | -16 | -18 |
102 | Cole Kmet CHI (14) | TE | +8 | +24 |
103 | Rashod Bateman BAL (10) | WR | -42 | -11 |
104 | Dawson Knox BUF (7) | TE | +8 | -10 |
105 | Treylon Burks TEN (6) | WR | 0 | +2 |
106 | Tyler Boyd CIN (10) | WR | +15 | +17 |
107 | Drake London ATL (14) | WR | -16 | -12 |
108 | Ken Walker III SEA (11) | RB | -13 | -10 |
109 | Kadarius Toney NYG (9) | WR | -5 | +6 |
110 | Jakobi Meyers NE (10) | WR | +8 | +40 |
111 | Brandon Aiyuk SF (9) | WR | -19 | -15 |
112 | Robbie Anderson CAR (13) | WR | +48 | +84 |
113 | Russell Gage TB (11) | WR | +2 | +1 |
114 | J.D. McKissic WAS (14) | RB | +6 | +27 |
115 | Nyheim Hines IND (14) | RB | -7 | +9 |
116 | Jamaal Williams DET (6) | RB | +24 | +49 |
117 | Isaiah Spiller LAC (8) | RB | +11 | +34 |
118 | Allen Lazard GB (14) | WR | -19 | -9 |
119 | Derek Carr LV (6) | QB | -6 | -13 |
120 | Michael Carter NYJ (10) | RB | -13 | -15 |
121 | Chris Olave NO (14) | WR | -2 | -8 |
122 | Jarvis Landry NO (14) | WR | +7 | +16 |
123 | Kenny Golladay NYG (9) | WR | +9 | +33 |
124 | Kirk Cousins MIN (7) | QB | -13 | -7 |
125 | Justin Fields CHI (14) | QB | +11 | +10 |
126 | Matt Ryan IND (14) | QB | +38 | +33 |
127 | Marlon Mack HOU (6) | RB | +26 | +19 |
128 | Noah Fant SEA (11) | TE | +9 | +25 |
129 | Garrett Wilson NYJ (10) | WR | -12 | -7 |
130 | DeAndre Hopkins ARI (13) | WR | -30 | -58 |
131 | Alexander Mattison MIN (7) | RB | -17 | -12 |
132 | Dameon Pierce HOU (6) | RB | -5 | +7 |
133 | Mecole Hardman KC (8) | WR | +32 | +15 |
134 | DeVante Parker NE (10) | WR | -4 | +10 |
135 | David Njoku CLE (9) | TE | +17 | +23 |
136 | Marvin Jones Jr. JAC (11) | WR | +38 | +67 |
137 | Jahan Dotson WAS (14) | WR | +14 | +38 |
138 | Rachaad White TB (11) | RB | +11 | +28 |
139 | Tyler Allgeier ATL (14) | RB | +5 | +25 |
140 | Hunter Henry NE (10) | TE | -9 | -4 |
141 | Irv Smith Jr. MIN (7) | TE | -3 | +8 |
142 | Pat Freiermuth PIT (9) | TE | -36 | -30 |
143 | Mark Ingram II NO (14) | RB | +26 | +18 |
144 | Gerald Everett LAC (8) | TE | +4 | +33 |
145 | Van Jefferson LAR (7) | WR | +25 | +49 |
146 | Jalen Tolbert DAL (9) | WR | +53 | +42 |
147 | Rex Burkhead HOU (6) | RB | +110 | +128 |
148 | Skyy Moore KC (8) | WR | -22 | -20 |
149 | Nico Collins HOU (6) | WR | +18 | +88 |
150 | Michael Gallup DAL (9) | WR | -11 | -10 |
151 | Rondale Moore ARI (13) | WR | -16 | +18 |
152 | Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE (9) | WR | +45 | +92 |
153 | Tyler Higbee LAR (7) | TE | -7 | +29 |
154 | Kenneth Gainwell PHI (7) | RB | -30 | +6 |
155 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB (11) | DST | +13 | -37 |
156 | Los Angeles Rams LAR (7) | DST | +33 | -27 |
157 | Raheem Mostert MIA (11) | RB | -14 | -23 |
158 | Darrel Williams ARI (13) | RB | -2 | +26 |
159 | Dallas Cowboys DAL (9) | DST | +39 | -27 |
160 | Daniel Jones NYG (9) | QB | +18 | +63 |
161 | Khalil Herbert CHI (14) | RB | -16 | +47 |
162 | Damien Williams ATL (14) | RB | +67 | +120 |
163 | Ryan Tannehill TEN (6) | QB | +8 | +18 |
164 | Pittsburgh Steelers PIT (9) | DST | +67 | +14 |
165 | Austin Hooper TEN (6) | TE | +1 | +34 |
166 | Brevin Jordan HOU (6) | TE | +52 | +122 |
167 | Albert Okwuegbunam DEN (9) | TE | -26 | +1 |
168 | Trevor Lawrence JAC (11) | QB | -21 | -14 |
169 | Los Angeles Chargers LAC (8) | DST | +35 | -14 |
170 | Cincinnati Bengals CIN (10) | DST | +85 | +44 |
171 | Miami Dolphins MIA (11) | DST | +34 | +16 |
172 | Jameis Winston NO (14) | QB | -13 | 0 |
173 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC (8) | WR | -39 | -31 |
174 | Boston Scott PHI (7) | RB | +43 | +119 |
175 | Riley Patterson DET (6) | K | +237 | |
176 | D'Onta Foreman CAR (13) | RB | -1 | +30 |
177 | Ronald Jones II KC (8) | RB | -54 | -56 |
178 | Carson Wentz WAS (14) | QB | +32 | +31 |
179 | Logan Thomas WAS (14) | TE | -6 | +49 |
180 | Buffalo Bills BUF (7) | DST | -17 | -77 |
181 | Harrison Butker KC (8) | K | +41 | -50 |
182 | Evan Engram JAC (11) | TE | -28 | -2 |
183 | Zamir White LV (6) | RB | +28 | +39 |
184 | Justin Tucker BAL (10) | K | -1 | -68 |
185 | Julio Jones TB (11) | WR | -28 | -18 |
186 | DJ Chark Jr. DET (6) | WR | -44 | -29 |
187 | K.J. Osborn MIN (7) | WR | -1 | +28 |
188 | Corey Davis NYJ (10) | WR | -33 | +25 |
189 | Brian Robinson Jr. WAS (14) | RB | +1 | +23 |
190 | Hayden Hurst CIN (10) | TE | +2 | +8 |
191 | Tyler Bass BUF (7) | K | 0 | -39 |
192 | Kenyan Drake LV (6) | RB | +1 | -1 |
193 | Tua Tagovailoa MIA (11) | QB | -60 | -68 |
194 | George Pickens PIT (9) | WR | -15 | -20 |
195 | Jamison Crowder BUF (7) | WR | -15 | +44 |
196 | Parris Campbell IND (14) | WR | +7 | +66 |
197 | Mac Jones NE (10) | QB | -16 | -26 |
198 | Matt Breida NYG (9) | RB | +80 | +71 |
199 | Gus Edwards BAL (10) | RB | -41 | -6 |
200 | New Orleans Saints NO (14) | DST | -13 | -73 |
201 | Arizona Cardinals ARI (13) | DST | +38 | +70 |
202 | Zach Wilson NYJ (10) | QB | -17 | +3 |
203 | Wan'Dale Robinson NYG (9) | WR | +4 | +42 |
204 | Matt Gay LAR (7) | K | -9 | -59 |
205 | Laviska Shenault Jr. JAC (11) | WR | +14 | +67 |
206 | Randall Cobb GB (14) | WR | +56 | +32 |
207 | Green Bay Packers GB (14) | DST | +2 | -28 |
208 | Kendrick Bourne NE (10) | WR | -14 | +41 |
209 | Robert Tonyan GB (14) | TE | -59 | -33 |
210 | Alec Pierce IND (14) | WR | +15 | -9 |
211 | Indianapolis Colts IND (14) | DST | -35 | -74 |
212 | Curtis Samuel WAS (14) | WR | -10 | +43 |
213 | San Francisco 49ers SF (9) | DST | -41 | -80 |
214 | KJ Hamler DEN (9) | WR | -8 | +75 |
215 | Ryan Succop TB (11) | K | -1 | -26 |
216 | Sammy Watkins GB (14) | WR | +52 | -5 |
217 | Jerick McKinnon KC (8) | RB | +20 | +19 |
218 | Nick Folk NE (10) | K | +22 | -28 |
219 | Baltimore Ravens BAL (10) | DST | +8 | -36 |
220 | A.J. Green ARI (13) | WR | -4 | +4 |
221 | Daniel Carlson LV (6) | K | -21 | -91 |
222 | Braxton Berrios NYJ (10) | WR | +19 | +168 |
223 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN (6) | WR | +106 | +122 |
224 | Greg Joseph MIN (7) | K | +65 | +16 |
225 | Cleveland Browns CLE (9) | DST | -2 | -7 |
226 | Byron Pringle CHI (14) | WR | +10 | +70 |
227 | Samaje Perine CIN (10) | RB | -1 | +37 |
228 | Dustin Hopkins LAC (8) | K | +33 | +4 |
229 | Jameson Williams DET (6) | WR | -67 | -59 |
230 | New England Patriots NE (10) | DST | -42 | -67 |
231 | Sterling Shepard NYG (9) | WR | -35 | +88 |
232 | Cameron Brate TB (11) | TE | +47 | -22 |
233 | Rodrigo Blankenship IND (14) | K | 0 | -36 |
234 | Philadelphia Eagles PHI (7) | DST | -6 | -9 |
235 | Hassan Haskins TEN (6) | RB | +55 | +8 |
236 | Mo Alie-Cox IND (14) | TE | +24 | +20 |
237 | Sony Michel MIA (11) | RB | -76 | -21 |
238 | Kyle Juszczyk SF (9) | RB | +191 | +74 |
239 | Jake Elliott PHI (7) | K | +14 | +2 |
240 | Cedrick Wilson Jr. MIA (11) | WR | +30 | +60 |
241 | Jared Goff DET (6) | QB | -20 | -12 |
242 | Isaiah McKenzie BUF (7) | WR | 0 | -11 |
243 | Devin Duvernay BAL (10) | WR | +74 | +42 |
244 | Olamide Zaccheaus ATL (14) | WR | +128 | +65 |
245 | Ty Montgomery NE (10) | RB | +218 | |
246 | Jonnu Smith NE (10) | TE | -11 | +83 |
247 | David Bell CLE (9) | WR | -39 | +23 |
248 | Carolina Panthers CAR (13) | DST | +10 | +9 |
249 | Evan McPherson CIN (10) | K | -48 | -87 |
250 | Chicago Bears CHI (14) | DST | +24 | +28 |
251 | Robbie Gould SF (9) | K | -1 | -24 |
252 | Matt Prater ARI (13) | K | -32 | -79 |
253 | Wil Lutz NO (14) | K | +18 | -18 |
254 | Marcus Mariota ATL (14) | QB | +22 | +20 |
255 | Tyler Conklin NYJ (10) | TE | +76 | +46 |
256 | Isiah Pacheco KC (8) | RB | +59 | +47 |
257 | Jeff Wilson Jr. SF (9) | RB | -6 | +11 |
258 | C.J. Uzomah NYJ (10) | TE | +8 | +9 |
259 | Patrick Ricard BAL (10) | RB | +198 | |
260 | Adam Trautman NO (14) | TE | -17 | +68 |
261 | Nelson Agholor NE (10) | WR | +16 | +79 |
262 | Christian Watson GB (14) | WR | -85 | -115 |
263 | Chris Conley HOU (6) | WR | +121 | |
264 | Ameer Abdullah LV (6) | RB | +164 | +13 |
265 | Zay Jones JAC (11) | WR | -16 | +53 |
266 | Tennessee Titans TEN (6) | DST | -10 | -47 |
267 | Dan Arnold JAC (11) | TE | -8 | +124 |
268 | James Washington DAL (9) | WR | +86 | +73 |
269 | Romeo Doubs GB (14) | WR | +11 | -69 |
270 | Joshua Palmer LAC (8) | WR | -88 | -66 |
271 | Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR (13) | WR | -41 | +12 |
272 | DeeJay Dallas SEA (11) | RB | +105 | |
273 | Geoff Swaim TEN (6) | TE | +159 | |
274 | Dontrell Hilliard TEN (6) | RB | +60 | -9 |
275 | Davis Mills HOU (6) | QB | -27 | -41 |
276 | Brandon McManus DEN (9) | K | -31 | -81 |
277 | Giovani Bernard TB (11) | RB | +37 | +48 |
278 | Kansas City Chiefs KC (8) | DST | -66 | -57 |
279 | Washington Commanders WAS (14) | DST | +3 | -49 |
280 | Anthony McFarland Jr. PIT (9) | RB | +162 | |
281 | Mason Crosby GB (14) | K | -6 | -35 |
282 | Ricky Seals-Jones NYG (9) | TE | +50 | +70 |
283 | Tyrion Davis-Price SF (9) | RB | -59 | -81 |
284 | Baker Mayfield CAR (13) | QB | -37 | -77 |
285 | Velus Jones Jr. CHI (14) | WR | +31 | +53 |
286 | Freddie Swain SEA (11) | WR | +134 | |
287 | Chris Boswell PIT (9) | K | -15 | -54 |
288 | Randy Bullock TEN (6) | K | +7 | +6 |
289 | Zack Moss BUF (7) | RB | -16 | +13 |
290 | Dee Eskridge SEA (11) | WR | +88 | |
291 | Harrison Bryant CLE (9) | TE | +45 | |
292 | Younghoe Koo ATL (14) | K | -60 | -107 |
293 | James Proche II BAL (10) | WR | +58 | +41 |
294 | Tommy Tremble CAR (13) | TE | +45 | +89 |
295 | Kalif Raymond DET (6) | WR | +156 | +99 |
296 | Chris Evans CIN (10) | RB | +5 | -42 |
297 | Bryan Edwards ATL (14) | WR | -43 | +23 |
298 | Quez Watkins PHI (7) | WR | 0 | +41 |
299 | Pharaoh Brown HOU (6) | TE | +95 | |
300 | Jason Sanders MIA (11) | K | -66 | -24 |
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Miami Dolphins
8. Arizona Cardinals
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Cleveland Browns
12. San Francisco 49ers
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Los Angeles Chargers
15. New England Patriots
16. Green Bay Packers
17. Kansas City Chiefs
18. Chicago Bears
19. Seattle Seahawks
20. Washington Commanders
21. Philadelphia Eagles
22. Denver Broncos
23. Minnesota Vikings
24. New York Giants
25. Carolina Panthers
26. Tennessee Titans
27. Las Vegas Raiders
28. Houston Texans
29. Detroit Lions
30. New York Jets
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
1. Harrison Butker (KC)
2. Justin Tucker (BAL)
3. Tyler Bass (BUF)
4. Matt Gay (LAR)
5. Ryan Succop (TB)
6. Daniel Carlson (LV)
7. Jonathan Garibay (DAL)
8. Evan McPherson (CIN)
9. Matt Prater (ARI)
10. Rodrigo Blankenship (IND)
11. Jake Elliott (PHI)
12. Robbie Gould (SF)
13. Brandon McManus (DEN)
14. Nick Folk (NE)
15. Greg Joseph (MIN)
16. Dustin Hopkins (LAC)
17. Randy Bullock (TEN)
18. Mason Crosby (GB)
19. Chris Boswell (PIT)
20. Wil Lutz (NO)
21. Jason Sanders (MIA)
22. Younghoe Koo (ATL)
23. Graham Gano (NYG)
24. Joey Slye (WAS)
25. Cade York (CLE)
26. Cairo Santos (CHI)
27. Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU)
28. Jason Myers (SEA)
29. Zane Gonzalez (CAR)
30. Greg Zuerlein (NYJ)
31. Ryan Santoso (JAC)
32. Riley Patterson (DET)
1. Travis Kelce (KC)
2. Mark Andrews (BAL)
3. George Kittle (SF)
4. Kyle Pitts (ATL)
5. Darren Waller (LV)
6. Dalton Schultz (DAL)
7. T.J. Hockenson (DET)
8. Zach Ertz (ARI)
9. Mike Gesicki (MIA)
10. Dallas Goedert (PHI)
11. David Njoku (CLE)
12. Dawson Knox (BUF)
13. Noah Fant (SEA)
14. Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN)
15. Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)
16. Cole Kmet (CHI)
17. Robert Tonyan (GB)
18. Tyler Higbee (LAR)
19. Hunter Henry (NE)
20. Gerald Everett (LAC)
21. Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
22. Logan Thomas (WAS)
23. Austin Hooper (TEN)
24. Cameron Brate (TB)
25. Brevin Jordan (HOU)
26. Hayden Hurst (CIN)
27. Evan Engram (JAC)
28. C.J. Uzomah (NYJ)
29. Mo Alie-Cox (IND)
30. Harrison Bryant (CLE)
31. Jonnu Smith (NE)
32. Adam Trautman (NO)
33. Dan Arnold (JAC)
34. Ricky Seals-Jones (NYG)
35. Geoff Swaim (TEN)
36. Anthony Firkser (ATL)
37. Pharaoh Brown (HOU)
38. Donald Parham Jr. (LAC)
39. Greg Dulcich (DEN)
40. Tommy Tremble (CAR)
1. Cooper Kupp (LAR)
2. Justin Jefferson (MIN)
3. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)
4. CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
5. Stefon Diggs (BUF)
6. Davante Adams (LV)
7. Deebo Samuel (SF)
8. Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)
9. Brandin Cooks (HOU)
10. Keenan Allen (LAC)
11. DJ Moore (CAR)
12. Tee Higgins (CIN)
13. Diontae Johnson (PIT)
14. Tyreek Hill (MIA)
15. Mike Evans (TB)
16. Mike Williams (LAC)
17. Terry McLaurin (WAS)
18. Darnell Mooney (CHI)
19. A.J. Brown (PHI)
20. DK Metcalf (SEA)
21. Tyler Lockett (SEA)
22. Allen Robinson II (LAR)
23. Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
24. Marquise Brown (ARI)
25. Chris Godwin (TB)
26. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
27. Robert Woods (TEN)
28. Hunter Renfrow (LV)
29. Amari Cooper (CLE)
30. Adam Thielen (MIN)
31. Jerry Jeudy (DEN)
32. Gabriel Davis (BUF)
33. Christian Kirk (JAC)
34. JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)
35. Russell Gage (TB)
36. Chase Claypool (PIT)
37. DeVonta Smith (PHI)
38. Elijah Moore (NYJ)
39. Courtland Sutton (DEN)
40. Tyler Boyd (CIN)
41. Michael Thomas (NO)
42. Michael Gallup (DAL)
43. Treylon Burks (TEN)
44. Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC)
45. Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
46. Rashod Bateman (BAL)
47. Drake London (ATL)
48. Rondale Moore (ARI)
49. Robbie Anderson (CAR)
50. Kenny Golladay (NYG)
51. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC)
52. Kadarius Toney (NYG)
53. Jakobi Meyers (NE)
54. Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
55. Van Jefferson (LAR)
56. Corey Davis (NYJ)
57. Jamison Crowder (BUF)
58. Mecole Hardman (KC)
59. Jahan Dotson (WAS)
60. Allen Lazard (GB)
61. Chris Olave (NO)
62. DeVante Parker (NE)
63. Jarvis Landry (NO)
64. DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)
65. K.J. Osborn (MIN)
66. Sterling Shepard (NYG)
67. Tim Patrick (DEN)
68. DJ Chark Jr. (DET)
69. Jameson Williams (DET)
70. Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE)
71. Sammy Watkins (GB)
72. Alec Pierce (IND)
73. A.J. Green (ARI)
74. Skyy Moore (KC)
75. Byron Pringle (CHI)
76. Christian Watson (GB)
77. Randall Cobb (GB)
78. Curtis Samuel (WAS)
79. Nico Collins (HOU)
80. Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC)
81. Kendrick Bourne (NE)
82. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN)
83. Braxton Berrios (NYJ)
84. James Washington (DAL)
85. Jalen Tolbert (DAL)
86. Parris Campbell (IND)
87. Devin Duvernay (BAL)
88. George Pickens (PIT)
89. Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL)
90. John Metchie III (HOU)
91. Cedrick Wilson Jr. (MIA)
92. Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG)
93. Isaiah McKenzie (BUF)
94. Velus Jones Jr. (CHI)
95. Nelson Agholor (NE)
96. David Bell (CLE)
97. Zay Jones (JAC)
98. KJ Hamler (DEN)
99. Dee Eskridge (SEA)
100. Joshua Palmer (LAC)
101. Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR)
102. Freddie Swain (SEA)
103. Amari Rodgers (GB)
104. Chris Conley (HOU)
105. Darius Slayton (NYG)
106. James Proche II (BAL)
107. Kalif Raymond (DET)
108. Jalen Guyton (LAC)
109. Bryan Edwards (ATL)
110. Tylan Wallace (BAL)
111. Jauan Jennings (SF)
112. Equanimeous St. Brown (CHI)
113. Demarcus Robinson (LV)
114. Marquez Callaway (NO)
115. Quez Watkins (PHI)
116. Dez Fitzpatrick (TEN)
117. Keelan Cole Sr. (LV)
118. Zach Pascal (PHI)
119. Anthony Schwartz (CLE)
120. Damiere Byrd (ATL)
121. DeAndre Carter (LAC)
122. Romeo Doubs (GB)
123. Ashton Dulin (IND)
124. Tyquan Thornton (NE)
125. Chad Beebe (HOU)
126. Rashard Higgins (CAR)
127. Jalen Reagor (PHI)
128. Ray-Ray McCloud (SF)
129. Calvin Austin III (PIT)
130. Jakeem Grant Sr. (CLE)
131. Ben Skowronek (LAR)
132. Tyler Johnson (TB)
133. Kyle Philips (TEN)
134. Breshad Perriman (TB)
135. Malik Turner (SF)
136. Noah Brown (DAL)
137. Cam Sims (WAS)
138. Dyami Brown (WAS)
139. Tre'Quan Smith (NO)
140. Miles Boykin (PIT)
141. Phillip Dorsett II (HOU)
142. Preston Williams (MIA)
143. Mack Hollins (LV)
144. Danny Gray (SF)
145. Marcus Johnson (SF)
146. Ty Montgomery (NE)
147. Antoine Wesley (ARI)
148. Brandon Zylstra (CAR)
149. Josh Reynolds (DET)
150. Jamal Agnew (JAC)
151. Trent Sherfield (MIA)
152. Auden Tate (ATL)
153. Lynn Bowden Jr. (MIA)
154. Deonte Harty (NO)
155. Ja'Marcus Bradley (CLE)
156. Cyril Grayson Jr. (TB)
157. Khalil Shakir (BUF)
158. Anthony Miller (PIT)
159. Keelan Doss (NYG)
160. Albert Wilson (MIN)
1. Jonathan Taylor (IND)
2. Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
3. Austin Ekeler (LAC)
4. Najee Harris (PIT)
5. Derrick Henry (TEN)
6. Joe Mixon (CIN)
7. Dalvin Cook (MIN)
8. D'Andre Swift (DET)
9. Leonard Fournette (TB)
10. Alvin Kamara (NO)
11. Aaron Jones (GB)
12. Nick Chubb (CLE)
13. Javonte Williams (DEN)
14. Saquon Barkley (NYG)
15. David Montgomery (CHI)
16. Josh Jacobs (LV)
17. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
18. James Conner (ARI)
19. Cam Akers (LAR)
20. J.K. Dobbins (BAL)
21. Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL)
22. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)
23. Breece Hall (NYJ)
24. Antonio Gibson (WAS)
25. Elijah Mitchell (SF)
26. Miles Sanders (PHI)
27. Kareem Hunt (CLE)
28. Damien Harris (NE)
29. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)
30. Chase Edmonds (MIA)
31. AJ Dillon (GB)
32. Devin Singletary (BUF)
33. Tony Pollard (DAL)
34. Melvin Gordon III (DEN)
35. Michael Carter (NYJ)
36. James Robinson (JAC)
37. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
38. Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR)
39. Ken Walker III (SEA)
40. Rashaad Penny (SEA)
41. Nyheim Hines (IND)
42. James Cook (BUF)
43. Dameon Pierce (HOU)
44. J.D. McKissic (WAS)
45. Jamaal Williams (DET)
46. Alexander Mattison (MIN)
47. Ronald Jones II (KC)
48. Gus Edwards (BAL)
49. Isaiah Spiller (LAC)
50. Marlon Mack (HOU)
51. Raheem Mostert (MIA)
52. Rex Burkhead (HOU)
53. Rachaad White (TB)
54. Kenyan Drake (LV)
55. Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
56. D'Onta Foreman (CAR)
57. James White (NE)
58. Damien Williams (ATL)
59. Boston Scott (PHI)
60. Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)
61. Mark Ingram II (NO)
62. Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
63. Matt Breida (NYG)
64. Jerick McKinnon (KC)
65. Samaje Perine (CIN)
66. Sony Michel (MIA)
67. Khalil Herbert (CHI)
68. Kyle Juszczyk (SF)
69. Eno Benjamin (ARI)
70. Hassan Haskins (TEN)
71. Giovani Bernard (TB)
72. Derrick Gore (KC)
73. Darrel Williams (ARI)
74. Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF)
75. Zack Moss (BUF)
76. Zamir White (LV)
77. Dontrell Hilliard (TEN)
78. Chris Evans (CIN)
79. Chris Carson (SEA)
80. Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
1. Josh Allen (BUF)
2. Patrick Mahomes II (KC)
3. Jalen Hurts (PHI)
4. Lamar Jackson (BAL)
5. Kyler Murray (ARI)
6. Justin Herbert (LAC)
7. Tom Brady (TB)
8. Joe Burrow (CIN)
9. Dak Prescott (DAL)
10. Matthew Stafford (LAR)
11. Aaron Rodgers (GB)
12. Russell Wilson (DEN)
13. Trey Lance (SF)
14. Kirk Cousins (MIN)
15. Derek Carr (LV)
16. Daniel Jones (NYG)
17. Justin Fields (CHI)
18. Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
19. Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
20. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
21. Carson Wentz (WAS)
22. Matt Ryan (IND)
23. Zach Wilson (NYJ)
24. Jameis Winston (NO)
25. Mac Jones (NE)
26. Jared Goff (DET)
27. Davis Mills (HOU)
28. Marcus Mariota (ATL)
29. Sam Darnold (CAR)
30. Deshaun Watson (CLE)
31. Geno Smith (SEA)
32. Mitchell Trubisky (PIT)
33. Kenny Pickett (PIT)
34. Drew Lock (SEA)
35. Jacoby Brissett (CLE)
36. Matt Corral (CAR)
37. Desmond Ridder (ATL)
38. Taysom Hill (NO)
39. Baker Mayfield (CLE)
40. Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
]]>I want to thank you for giving the THOME Projections daily email service a chance. The final results of the system trying to pick individual games to bet on was a spectacular, unmitigated, and wholly impressive disaster. So, we're going to shut it down, including deleting all user information from thomeprojections.com, and removing the Sign in / Settings functionality.
Next season, THOME will do only what it does well: predict the proper wagering side of season-long Team Totals wagers. On that endeavor, THOME is 40-20 over two seasons, and in 2019, the teams that THOME had a 70%+ confidence rating for went 15-3.
So we're going to focus our efforts on maintaining that performance.
Thanks for giving us a shot. Sorry it didn't work out. Really hope you weren't betting THOME's picks...
]]>Just recently, I added a rear-facing element to the THOME Projections website: 2018 "projections."
Back in 2018, leading up to the season, I did a version of these projections that I kept to myself. They weren't quite as robust as the version of the algorithm I have since developed. Basically, they didn't have the fifth step listed on the FAQs page. After determining an Expected Win Percentage, I simply used that as each team's winning percentage for the purposes of the projected standings.
So there was no Monte Carlo simulation of the season, and that meant two things: No normal distribution of outcomes from where I derive the Vegas Number Confidences; and the number of wins throughout the league did not come close to matching the number of losses. I think there were something like 2,490 wins and 2,370 losses. There should be 2,430 of each. The current, as of this writing, 2019 Projected Standings show 2,436 wins and 2,424 losses, which is much closer to a possible reality.
But more importantly for picking which season-long wagers to place, I did not have confidences for each Over/Under number. I simply had to go with the teams that were further away in their win totals than what Vegas had. I picked eight teams this way, went 5-3 over the season, for a return on investment of about 21%. Not bad at all for a six-month investment.
But what if the THOME system that exists today existed 12 months ago? What would that have looked like? I refactored the algorithm over the last couple weeks to allow for this type of simulation. Let's start by looking at the Projected Standings:
A few things jump out at me here. First, the number of teams where THOME's projected record was within five wins is 11, including nailing the St. Louis Cardinals on the nose. The number of teams where THOME was off by 10 or more is 14, including a delta of more than 20 for Boston (they were very good) and Baltimore (they were very bad).
So almost the same number of very close hits as very wild misses. Not bad. Now looking at the Vegas Number Confidences, and what would have happened if you'd placed these bets:
Overall, THOME recommended the correct play for 20 out of 30 teams. I think it bears repeating that in a full two third of the teams in Major League Baseball, THOME knew which way to play. If you had played all 30 recommendations, assuming an average odds of -110 and an even risk across all wagers, you would have seen a return on investment of 27%.
If I could say that you could hand me any amount of money, and in six months I'll hand it back to you with a 27% bonus on top, you'd be a fool not to do it.
Now, that having been said, most people aren't going to play all 30 of these. And admittedly, the teams where THOME felt most confident did not play out as well as the entire group. If you played just eight teams with a > 90% confidence, with the same assumptions as before, your ROI drops to 19.3%. Which is still making you very good money at the end of the season.
Also, take a close look at the hits and misses in that group. The misses were small: Cleveland and Arizona by four wins, and Miami by just two, for an average of 3.33. The hits were by generally bigger margins: SF by eight, Toronto by eight, Yankees by five, Angels by four, and Mets by four, for an average of 5.8.
If the Marlins had won two more games, 5-3 becomes 6-2 and a 19.3% ROI becomes 43.2%. That's a huge swing on just two games in a 162 game season.
At any rate, I think these "historical" pages will stand as a bit of proof that the system works. And hopefully you'll join along with me for the 2019 season. Let's get that bread.
]]>One of the main tenets of Joe Peta's kickass work Trading Bases (by which THOME is largely inspired) is that you need to deal with what he calls "cluster luck," or the occurrences of a team stringing together hits in such a way as to score more runs than would otherwise be expected.
Hits turn into runs at an average rate somewhere near 2:1. That is, most teams, most of the time, have about twice as many hits as they have runs scored. But this isn't always the case. In a classic example I'm citing from memory but definitely stole from somewhere else, if a team tallies 9 hits in a game, how many runs will they score? 4? 5?
If the 9 hits came one in each inning, they very likely scored 0 (barring walks, homers, etc.). If all 9 hits came in just one inning, then even 9 singles scored 6-8 runs, and the number could be much higher than even 9 if some runners reached base via something other than a hit.
The point being, a hit is not a hit is not a hit. And a run is not a run is not a run. A team that scores 800 runs in a season sounds like they killed it. That's an average of nearly 5 runs a game. That should be a playoff team (unless their pitching gave up many more runs than the offense could score). But what if they scored 20 runs in 40 games each, and were shut out the other 122 times? Now we have an historically pathetic record. Yes, I also realize that's not freakin' possible... but you should get the point.
So, cluster luck. Peta's right, you have to take account of it, most especially when evaluating +EV positions on season win total O/U wagers. But he doesn't go into the details of his calculations in Trading Bases. He discusses, at a high level, how you need to deal with it, and how this affected the outlook of some team's 2011 season based on their 2010 run scoring... but I need specifics!
Enter BaseRuns.
Allow me to allow FanGraphs to describe this sucker:
BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams.
FanGraphs, BaseRuns
The important part here is context-neutral. This essentially does away with the variance of cluster luck and gives us an appropriate Runs Scored and Runs Allowed for a team based on their underlying peripherals.
After we figure that for every team, we can discover a true context-neutral (but league and scoring environment-sensitive) expected winning percentage by utilizing the Pythagenpat variation of Bill James' original Pythagorean Win-Loss estimation.
After dealing with roster changes using projected WAR. But that's a story for another time.
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